First of all, thanks to everyone who has welcomed me back to the world of blogging… this post is your reward!

More to the point, it’s an attempt to ‘answer’ all who have said: “Sally, we’re glad you’ve been winning. But how about more detail on the trades and how you came to pick them?”

So. This one. The Dow has dropped sharply this afternoon. That’s the first thing I noticed. The clincher, however, is that America is on holiday on Monday… and markets often rise the day after the day off.

I am in (just for £1 a point) at 11565. With a stop loss - of course! - at 11495. In an ideal world, I’d have waited till nearer the end of day to see how the rest of the session pans out, but I thought it was worth a trade.

PLEASE NOTE THIS IS NOT ANY SORT OF A TIP. MY TRADES OFTEN GO HIDEOUSLY WRONG, AND YOU’LL BE MUCH BETTER OFF PICKING YOUR OWN ONES! THIS IS JUST TO GIVE YOU AN EXAMPLE OF CIRCUMSTANCES WHEN I CHOOSE TO TRADE.

Delighted to report we’ve now fixed the link between my website and Finspreads… So if I STILL haven’t managed to put you off spread betting, just take my name in vain when you fill in their online application form, deposit £100, and they’ll give you the £50 bonus I’ve negotiated for my readers.

A 50% return! Can’t be bad.

Full details at www.sallynicoll.com

It’s been quite a while. As you might - just - remember, I came rushing back to Primrose Hill when my insurers told me they were going to fix the subsidence on my house.

Since then, life has been chaotic. An endless round of packing and unpacking. Moving to temporary accommodation. (Still in Primrose Hill, and Dow Jones has swapped his view of a Spanish beach for life on the Regent’s Park Canal, which is much to his liking, so it’s not all bad.)

My days have been absorbed with the sheer frustration of trying to get phone lines put in. This is a true story: The people at BT, having twice lost my application for a landline, actually advised me to reapply online. “Much safer than trying to do it on the phone,” said the man with the Geordie accent. No kidding. Having triumphed with a landline, my next mission was to secure broadband. I didn’t choose BT. Or Virgin, who were unable to supply me with a phone line in the first place. But then I came across an outfit called PlusNet. Highly recommended.

Meanwhile, of course, the markets were doing the same as Nicoll Towers: Sinking. We are officially in a bear market…. recession looming….

At least I had an email connection, enabling me to reply to several dozen messages, all of which posed the same essential question: “With the markets falling, is this a bad time to take up spread betting. Wouldn’t I be better off waiting.”

My response: ABSOLUTELY NO NEED TO WAIT! THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO TRY IT OUT.

Well, I would say that. Wouldn’t I?

Er yes. But only because it’s true.

I have learned to love few things in life more than a market that is trending steadily down (or up; the key words are trend and steady). It makes winning trades so much easier.

Over the past three months I have done extremely well shorting Barclays, for instance. And - one of my favourites - Apple. Not to mention Redrow. Basically, the banks, housebuilders, airlines and retail are all having a dreadful time…. which represents an opportunity to cash in.

Now then. I’m DEFINITELY not suggesting you leap in and short the markets I’ve just mentioned. At present, I’m still in a Redrow trade, but only just, as the price is almost at my stop loss, and - inevitably - I’m wishing I’d got out earlier. Most of my winning trades have lasted for a week or so…. I’ve monitored them closely while they’ve been in play. And I’m getting better at knowing when to take profits.

Profits. Yep, during the year to date, although I have been trading only sporadically, I am making money. At least!

Did well on oil while it was rocketing up in a nice straight line. Gold has been fun, too - as a short. And I did hugely well shorting the S&P 500 index… until I repatriated too much of my profit to the Nice People at Finspreads when the trend annoyingly reversed itself, and I was being stubborn. The charts never lie…

Anyway. My temporary accommodation is sorted. And it’s probably going to be less temporary than I imagined, since my insurers and Camden Council have yet to agree about the work that needs to be done to unsubside me. So hopefully I’ll be able to trade on a more regular basis again from now.

And yes, I promise to update the blog more frequently, as well!

Any questions, just give me a shout!

Well guess what?

Dow Jones and I are back in London…. and taking every ounce of credit for bringing the Spanish sunshine back with us to Primrose Hill. (Retired Reggie pointed out today that the sun has shone every day since Boris was elected Mayor… which reminded me that Boris’s ex-wife, Allegra, was once my next-door neighbour, and that Boris’s dad is also the owner of a Jack Russell who’s one of Dow-Wow’s pals.)

Anyway.

Being sensible, I decided to cash in my various trades before coming back.

Big mistake.

Apple has continued to soar… I have missed a THOUSAND points of profit that would have been mine had I only kept my rolling trade in position.

Ah well…

The other big change has been brought to my attention by several readers. Namely that while I was driving from Marbella to Santander - we came home the pretty way - the Lovely People at Finspreads have updated their website. As soon as I’m properly unpacked, I’ll give you my verdict…. but in the meanwhile, the tekkie people have, um, overlooked the links that go from my web site to theirs… and even worse, there is no facility for anyone to claim the £50 account top-up that I’ve negotiated for my readers.

(In case you didn’t know, if you open a new Finspreads Account with at least £100, then you get £50 added to it. Full details are at http://www.sallynicoll.com/finspreadsoffer.html )

Assuming that I haven’t managed to put you off spread betting and you’d like to claim the free money, then send an email to sally@sallynicoll.com and I’ll sort it out for you.

As soon as I’ve finished unpacking…

Adios for now!

If you’ve read BETS AND THE CITY, you’ll know I’m a bit of a pinball wizard. Alas, it’s not a talent that’s ever going to make me a living. So I have to be a writer, instead. And as we all know, writers gravitate to all manner of activities that will enable them to procrastinate. (I have the cleanest floors on the Costa del Sol.)

So last month, my friend Angie sends me an email headed Air Force Test. It said:

“This will drive you nuts! The object of the game is to move the red block around without getting hit by the blue blocks or touching the black walls. If you can go longer than 18 seconds you are phenomenal. It’s been said that the US Air Force uses this for fighter pilots. They are expected to go for at least 2 minutes.”

Immediately, I clicked on the link. If you want to have a go, copy and paste this link:

http://members.iinet.net.au/~pontipak/redsquare.html

First time I played, I was killed in action quicker than you can say Basra. Fifth time round, I latsed the requisite 18 seconds. By the time it was getting dark, the new book remained unwritten, and I was officially up there with Tom Cruise and his merry band of Top Gunners. Dow Jones, incidentally, has taken to sitting on my lap when I’m on the computer, and he was mesmerised by the flashing blocks of blue and red.

If you decide to play, the ’secret’ is to use a technique that Sex God Ruud Guillet deployed back when he was manager of Chelsea. “Stop running around all over the place,” he told the team. “Stand still, and let the ball come to you.” In other words, move the red block as little as possible, and let the blue shapes run around like headless chickens.

Anyway. While I was waiting for the US Air Force to approve my application (they have not yet replied), I thought it was about time to dive back into the markets. You’ll notice I’ve been pretty quiet on the blog lately, and that’s because I actually HAVE been writing…. and when I’m focused on that, spread betting takes a back seat.

Since my last blog, I’ve had some success with long-term plays on Apple (although I confess I’m merely recouping losses I incurred when the share price plunged to $120). I’m still kicking myself for closing my SELL on Bear Sterns a cluple of days BEFORE they followed Northern Rock into oblivion. And I’ve been buying and selling silver and oil (both trading within a range, so I try to buy on the way up, and sell on the way down) while selling EUR/GBP in order to offset the diminishing amount of Euros the nice people at Sol Bank give me whenever I go change my ill-gotten gains into local currency.

But ever since discovering I should be a fighter pilot, I’ve been trading Easyjet. I’ve been doing well when I buy towards the end of a day when the price has gone down. Althoough having said that, the longer term trend now seems to be down, so I’m thinking of reversing the strategy.

My other current trade is a sell on CSR (a company that featured in BETS) which is doing nicely.

And in the meanwhile, the new book really is coming along. Honest.

So Northern Rock has finally been put out of my misery, and we can no longer short its shares.

But that’s not my point.

I want to know whether nationalisation means my taxes are now paying Kevin Keegan’s forthcoming implosion at Newcastle United? (A drama out of that particular crisis is surely only a few more matches away.)

And hands up if you think Alistair Darling should be compelled to wear a black and white replica shirt - to match those dodgy eyebrows - until the whole mess is properly resolved. Resignation is too good for him!

Blimey. Bets is back in the Amazon Top 500 of ALL books today. People who know more than I do about publishing tell me this is pretty good going for anything that’s been out for more than a few weeks.

So welcome to all new readers of the blog, who’ve found their way here as a result of reading the book - and thank you very much for all the nice emails you’ve been sending. (Especially the bunch from the first week of January that, er, arrived today. Email moves in mysterious ways between the UK and Spain.)

I don’t have much to tell you about my own trading at the moment - except that I scalped about a hundred quid out of the FTSE 100 at the end of the week, on the correct basis that it wasn’t going to survive much over 5900. Basically, I’m writing more and therefore trading less right now.

However, to celebrate the renewed success of Bets and the City, here’s a joke from my friend Beverly. She lives in America, and still hasn’t got the hang of that spread betting thing we do. But she sent me this to see if it would make me laugh. It did. See if it does the same for you:

++++++++++++++++++++++++++

RETIREMENT PLANNING

If you had purchased $1000.00 of Nortel stock at the wrong time, it would have been worth $49 after one year.

With Enron, you would have had $16.50 left of the original $1000.00.

With WorldCom, you would have had less than $5 left.

If you had purchased $1000 of Delta Air Lines stock you would have $49 remaining.

But, if you had purchased $1,000 worth of beer/wine one year ago, drank all the beer/wine, then turned in the cans/bottles for the aluminum recycling REFUND, you would have had $214

Based on the above, the best current investment advice is to drink heavily and recycle.

I have written to the Good People at Finspreads to ensure that if my BUY on Apple - which is still Very Very Bad - fails to come good by March, then they will be happy to refund my losses.

I mean…. it was the Dog that made me do it. (Dow Jones says, ‘Hola’ by the way.)

I obviously have no control in these matters.

I am an enthusiastic supporter of the compensation culture.

Nothing is ever my fault.

And of course, if, by any chance, I happen to win, I’ll keep VERY quiet.

I shall also be suing Spurs if we fail to win the UEFA Cup, as I shall deserve compensation for emotional distress.

And I am investigating a claim against the Spanish Government, since the sun has failed to shine for three consecutive days.

As for the fat-boy greyhound trainer who’s taking William Hill to court, because it’s All Their Fault he blew £2,000,000… I really, really hope he gets sent packing with a flea in his ear.

Don’t you?

If you’ve read Bets and the City, you know that’s rule number one. It was handed down to me - like a tablet of stone - by my dad, when he used to liberate me from school on a Monday afternoon, and take me to the races at Fontwell Park… just to ensure I had a rounded education, you understand.

Which is why I can’t help but shudder, when I read the latest remark from Le Rogue Trader, Jerome Kerviel. Explaining his £3.7bn losses, he said: “You get a bit carried away.”

Makes me feel un peau better about my current Pomme Mac trade, that I really should have closed at $140. Surely the share price will recover by March. Won’t it?

Vive le sang froid.

But seriously, if you’re trading US stocks, remember they are usually FAR more volatile than their FTSE counterparts, so be especially careful to limit your losses. The flipside of which is that you can also make good wins. I traded Apple’s rolling contract from $120.17 to $125.48 on Thursday and Friday for a profit of £265. Which makes a bit of a dent in my long-term loser position…

…But I know full well that I got a bit carried away after Apple hit $200. Je suis stupide.

Can’t help but remember that I predicted towards the end of last year that the markets were due for a BIG correction. It happened yesterday, when the FTSE suffered its worst fall since 9/11.

And where was I on Black Monday? Um, sitting on my balcony, gazing at a sparkling blue sea and wondering whether to go for a swim. Write my new book, I mean.

Since the start of the year, I’ve done quite well on last year’s favourite stock, Apple…. although I dare say that will change as soon as the US markets open this afternoon, and my long-term short on Citigroup is also making money. (I’ve been stalking Bear Sterns, too, but I think it will probably gap down so far this afternoon that I’ll continue to wait.)

I have also achieved the almost-impossible: Losing money on a SELL trade in a falling market. Which is to say I have been short on TR Property since 9th January (take a look at the chart and you’ll see why), even though it is defying all odds and continues to rise - up 2.9 right now, the little bastard - while everything around it heads south.

If you’re new to all this market turmoil, then take it VERY easy. Don’t make the mistake I’ve made in the past, and think, “Oh, it’ll all go back up in a couple of days.” Let me make it clear, NO-ONE KNOWS FOR SURE WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT (although according to the futures market, the Dow will open WELL DOWN). Last time I adopted the Ostrich Position - head in the sand, waiting for my paper losses to diminish, all that happened was that I continued to lose money until I could bear the pain no longer, and fold the trade. I’d have been better off - in all senses - to switch my BUYS to SELLS.

Please, please remember that when the markets are this volatile, positions change very quickly and you need to monitor your positions frequently.