Sally Nicoll’s Online Diary » 2007

Archive for March, 2007

Something that almost rhymes with Starbucks

Thursday, March 29th, 2007

What a team! I sat there last night watching the game, and telling Dow Jones: “This is just dreadful. No teamwork. Not enough discipline. Squabbling with one another off the ball. Not a game plan in sight. It’s all the leader’s fault. RESIGN NOW!”

I refer - of course - to the hunt for Sir Alan’s new Apprentice, which I Sky+’d and watched after the atrocity that masqueraded as Andorra v England.

The new bunch is full of the Usual Suspects, and promises to be hugely entertaining in the weeks to come.

The ex Army boy looks plausible to me, and there are a couple of low-profile women who are sensibly not getting involved just yet (more likely they’ve been edited out, as the programme makers craft their series storylines).

The winner will certainly not be the Financial Adviser who led the boys’ team to scarcely deserved victory in the Coffee Challenge - not after that David Brent song and dance act; even more painful than watching Andy Johnson in an England shirt. And it won’t be the Quantum Physics girl who thinks she’s charming, either.

I can’t understand why anyone would want to be SrAlan’s Apprentice. And from the look of the Amstrad chart, no-one wants to invest in Amstrad, either. The price was over 200 about a year ago, but yesterday, it reached a 100-day trading low of 147p.

The price is a bit up today, but in the interests of unscientific research - eat your heart out, Physics Girl - I have decided to follow the trend short the share. So I’ve just sold Amstrad June at £3 a point at 152.5, and we’ll see how it does while the search for SrAlan’s next apprentice continues.

In honour of the Coffee Challenge, I also investigated the Starbucks share price. According to my trusty ShareScope chart, it’s fluctuated between $29.32 and $39.43 in the past 100 days. I’ve left a buy order for 50p a point with Finspreads if the price rises to $32.40, with a stop loss at $31.10 (oh yes, ever since the Unfortunate Incident with Apple, I’ve learned my stop loss lesson. Again.)

Other trading stuff: Burberry done good (hurrah for chavs), and I also made £120 on St James Place - alas, returning much of it when the price fell almost as fast as it had risen.
And my new best friend, $/yen has just delivered £39 on a £1 buy trade from 117.35 to 117.74 - fuelled by some US economic news at 12.30 today. I think the trend is up - especially if it can stay over 118.

I shan’t bore you with the losses Suffice to say that I’m keeping them small - and that there are lots of them.

The account is over £15k right now, and my immediate goal is to get back to where I was before Apple.

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Apple goes pear-shaped. Turning Japanese. And men with guns.

Thursday, March 22nd, 2007

Oops, I did it again! Although unlike Britney, I’ve escaped with my sanity and my hair intact.

Bloody Apple. The moment that trade went sour (about ten minutes after I put it on), I should have known better, and fled. But oh no, not me. I knew better. “Just a temporary blip in the market.” I told myself. “Hang on and cash in on the volatility.”

January turned to February. Apple volatiled one way, and the other. But mostly the other…

So how many deliberate mistakes have you spotted so far?

1. I was trading what I THOUGHT. And denying the realities, staring me straight in the face, on my ShareScope chart - and on my Finspreads screen, with that depressing minus figure alongside my doomed trade.

2. No stop loss. Somehow, it is always easier to accept an automatic loss of £150 or so (i.e. one per cent of my trading bank, rather than pull the trigger yourself when the figure is five times bigger (AND the rest…)

I was down, but not out.

I had a cunning plan.

My dud trade was on the March contract, and I had a few weeks for Apple to turn from red to green. And meanwhile, I could short the rolling contract - place SELL trades on a day-by-day basis, and make money until The Recovery arrived.

Guess what?

This worked! Admittedly to a lesser extent, but I was making more than I was losing.

AND THEN…

What happened to YOUR trades last month when the market began to sink like a stone? I had learned from my BAD experiences when the same thing happened in May 2006. (My least favourite part of Bets and the City; a masterclass in what NOT to do.)

I pulled the trigger on Apple, nursed my bruised ego and my dwindling spread betting pot, and told Dow Jones, “Right. That’s the LAST time I get into such a mess. IT WILL NOT HAPPEN AGAIN.” From the tone of my voice, he thought he was getting a bollocking, and padded out of the room.

After I had finished licking my wounds (ably assisted by Dow-Wow, once he’d realised I was cross only with myself), I educated myself about The Yen Carry Trade. Which is to say I saw a report on Newsnight that was predicting that stuff was about to happen.

I duly called up a chart of the dollar against the yen. And liked what I saw. Proceeding in an orderly direction. I still have problems getting my head around the fact that, in currencies, when something is going down it is strengthening, rather than weakening, but that’s only to be expected from someone whose sense of direction is as bad as mine.

Anyway, I spent a couple of weeks getting to know the dollar/yen. Always using stop losses, and trading only 50p a point while I got to understand how the market worked. Some I won. some I lost. Overall, I broke even.

And for a bit of variety, I was dabbling in the Dow (the index, not my four-legged spread betting accomplice), as it recovered from what had turned out to be a mini-crash.

Which brings me to 9th March. In America, the Non Farm Payrolls were due. And in retrospect, all I can say is “HURRAH!” I was logged onto Finspreads and watching the screen, waiting for the announcement, because I knew the Dow would be affected.

As indeed it was. But the Yen Carry Whatsit was also behaving as though struck by lightening. My childhood years of pinball playing paid off… I hit the buttons hard and fast: In and out of my trade in five minutes flat, and £91 in my account. Garnished by a £27.50 payback from the Dow.

Making money fast is much more fun than losing money slow.

But I know better than to leave currency trades open when I’m on the move. And so, I packed my passport, picked up my friend Retired Reggie and departed for a few days in Spain.

Did I tell you that Much Married Michael and Julia (still happily married) have moved to Marbella? I visited them back in September, just when I’d finished writing Bets and the City, and they seemed to be living happy ever after.

I had a great trip, and especially enjoyed the market in Puerto Banus, where I picked up a couple of beautifully decorated olive oil cans. Packed them in my suitcase… and while I was waiting for my flight home, heard my name being announced over the tannoy at Malaga airport. I duly went to the Customer Service Desk, and next thing, I was being ‘escorted’ down a corridor by a two bloke in uniforms: not BA, but Spanish policemen, complete with guns.

They were uncharmed by my halting Spanish (”David Beckham, Real Madrid, Kaunoute, Spurs never should have sold him Seville FC, 15 goals, yes, that IS my suitcase. Shouldn’t it be in the hold of the plane?”

You’ve guessed what happened. Those olive oil cans had shown up on the X Ray as unidentified metal menaces. The cops seemed relieved that I am a Healthy Eater, rather than a member of al-Qu’eda, and I went on my way.

So this time, I took no chances. We all of us had a lovely time on the Costa del Sol. The highlight came on Monday, when we all munching paella and sipping sangria, and I received a text from Big Brother, informing us it had just started snowing in Portsmouth. Our cheers could probably be heard in Gibraltar. A few hours later, my suitcase-with-nothing-metal-inside was safely checked in at Malaga airport, and I was having a browse in the duty free shop. But when I came to pay for my pretty little jar of garlic cloves, DISASTER. My handbag was gone.

Long story short. I ran around the airport like a headless chicken.

“When did you last have it?” asked Retired Reggie.

I HATE when people ask that question: If I knew when I last had it, then it wouldn’t be lost. Would it?

But Reggie insisted I retrace my steps. All the way back to the airport security check, where they X-Ray your hand luggage.

Guess what.

More men with guns.

This time, three of them marched me down several corridors, having first scrutinised my passport. I was shown into a little square of a room, devoid of all furniture, apart from a table. Which had my handbag sitting on it.

Before anyone had a chance to arrest me for being in possession of a Gustto knock-off, I snatched it, clasped it to my bosom, and kissed all three Spanish policemen - inevitably, it was the wrong one who responded with altogether too much enthusiasm.

So back in London now. The dollar-yen chart has formed into a small range of mountain peaks in my absence, so I’m not trading it, right now, and will wait for a clear trend to emerge.

Meanwhile, having walked through Primrose Hill in sleet first thing this morning, I have bought into Burberry at £5 a point. (Fear not, my other reason for the trade is that the chart says it’s going up.) And have just this moment gone £3 a point on the FTSE, based on the fact it’s back over 6300, and I think/hope there’s more to come.

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Archive for March, 2007

Something that almost rhymes with Starbucks

Apple goes pear-shaped. Turning Japanese. And men with guns.

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