Archive for January, 2007

A profit of £291 for January. Well, sort of…

Wednesday, January 31st, 2007
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Someone - and probably most recently Lord Levy - said that a week in politics is a long time. In which case, twenty-one days in trading must surely qualify as Ancient History.

Oh, how the markets have been moving. And not entirely in my favour.

But we’ll start with the good news. My Finspreads account balance is currently £16,087, with various successful trades to report.

If I were a Camden Council spin doctor I’d hold it right there.

Alas, it’s not the full story.

You’ll remember I was focused - obsessed, almost - on Apple. A fabulous buying opportunity if ever I saw one. I made £193.50 with 50p a point trades on the afternoon of 11 January. By which time the share price had hit $96.58.

“It’s going to soar above $100. Just watch it go!” I predicted the following morning, over coffee with my friend Supermum (former ace trader, now overrun by small children and large dogs, but still smiling).

“And then it’ll meet resistance.” If Supermum looked smug it’s probably because she OWNS an orchard’s worth of Apple shares, and has grown her harvest from around the $40 mark.

Still, Supermum didn’t seem to be contradicting me. Or even encouraging a note of caution.

On the Wednesday, Apple did something interesting. It opened and closed at almost the same price, forming the shape of a cross (don’t tell British Airways) on my ShareScope end-of-day chart. Down from its peak, at around $94.50. But I was out of the market, and looking for a way back in.

Had the price finally run out of steam? Or was it taking a break before reaching even higher highs?

It’s been a busy time of year (Nicoll vs. The Inland Revenue; spread betting gains are tax free… if only we could offset our losses), so I decided to take the long-term view on Apple.
With 550 potential points on the table (from $94.50 to my magic $100 per share), I decided to buy the March contract, next day when there was an upward break. I went 50p a point, with the intention of going higher once I was in profit.

Two weeks ago, Apple duly reached an all-time high of $97.10. And then….

SPLAT.

The following day, it closed at $89.08. That’s 802 points. At 50p a point.

And you know what?

I stayed in the trade.

And you know what else?

I’m STILL in the trade. (And currently showing a loss of £634.15.)

Initially, I was confident. “It’s just a blip. I have until 20th March. Course it will recover,” I told Supermum.

She didn’t disagree.

The price dipped below $78 last week. And I came very close to folding Today, Apple has recovered all the way up to $86, which is a few steps in the right direction.

All the same, I wish I’d got out of the trade at the first hint of trouble. I’m hanging in, and trying not to be emotional about it. But I’m cross with myself for breaking the no-more-than-one-per-cent-of-the-bank-at-risk rule.

On the other hand…

…I have a bit of a cunning plan.

It’s this:

If Apple shows any volatility on an intraday basis - up or down - I can Buy or Sell on the Rolling contract. I’ve done this twice, so far. First time I won £30. Next time I lost £34!

Other trades - I did a spot of day trading when I should have been filing taxi receipts. (I think the American markets are better for this than the UK, as they’re more volatile.) Up £76 by shorting Symantic on the back of some bad news. Tried the same with Intel: lost £58. A modest profit of £20.95 on Millicom. And £34.50 shorting Sandisk.

I am testing a sort-of system, with modest success. Something Greg Secker mentioned in passing. Too soon to be sure if its any good. But I’ll let you know once I get back to some more day trading.

In the meanwhile, I am ending the month in profit. I’ve made plenty of short-term, modestly successful trades. But Apple’s gone sour, and realistically, the profits I’ve made are likely to be wiped out.

Meanwhile, I still have several hours to get my tax form to the Revenue!

Apple Crumble…

Wednesday, January 10th, 2007

My first trade of 2007.

So at 2.50pm yesterday I bought the Apple Rolling at $86.39 for 75p a point. The price continued to climb, and twenty minutes later, I placed a second 75p trade at $86.76.

By the time Dow Jones was nagging me to take him out onto the Hill - at around 3.45, both trades were nicely into profit, and I was in a no-lose situation: I dutifully placed stop-losses just above the buy prices, so that even if Apple started following Newton’s law of gravity, my trades would close automatically at break-even.

Fast forward to 5pm. (It took me almost that long to clean the Dow-Wow, after his muddy romp in the park.)

Somewhere in San Francisco, Apple’s Steve Jobs was rising to his feet, hopefully to announce the iPhone. Speculators - including yours truly - certainly thought this was the case. Apple was at $87.10 and I was quids in.

You know what they say: Buy on the rumour, sell on the fact?

I was trying to figure out if I should do this, monitoring Google News to see what Mr J was saying. No details just yet, but my Sharescope five-minute bars continued to rise, reaching a new intra-day high, of $88 at. 5.20pm.

And then…

…My Sharescope package blew a fuse.

In the space of five minutes, the Apple price was apparently down to $85.22.

But that was impossible.

‘Bloody computers’, I said to Dow Jones. I switched to my Finspreads screen, to see what was really going on.

The price was $85.22.

Had Bill Gates just shown up in San Francisco with a gun? Or what?

The short answer is that I have absolutely no idea what led to the price spike.

“Well, Sally, at least you’ve learned your stop loss lesson” I hear you say.

Indeed. And just as well, because without my safety net in place, I’d have gone from a big, fat profit to minus £271, and a screaming panic.

Alas, however, without a guaranteed stop loss, Finspreads had been unable to get me out at my break-even point. I had lost £59.25

‘C’est la guerre.’ Although that’s not what I said at the time. Dow Jones fled from the room.

I was down. But not out.

LOOK…. the price was rising again.

And whereas once I would have slunk away, nursing my losses, not any more.

Back in I went, after just a couple of minutes when Apple was at $86.10. More cautiously, this time, at 50p a point.

Twenty-three minutes later, at 5.46, my trade was worth £102.50. I had to nip out for a quick meeting, and this time fear was a stronger emotion than greed, so I cashed in.

Regretted it immediately… decided to be late for meeting… made another £12.50 in three minutes.

One thing about day trading in a volatile market. It’s definitely not boring :)

But then I made a bad decision. I unilaterally decided Apple couldn’t possibly go any higher. Based on nothing more than Winner’s Meglamania, I’m afraid.

I placed a 50p Sell trade. Went off to my meeting. And lost £45 (stop loss kicked in right on the button, this time) by the time I got home.

I wasn’t finished, yet. By 7pm, Apple was waaay up ar $91.12. One final 50p trade. And sixty minutes later, another £19.50 in the bank.

But then…

I looked at the chart. During the course of the afternoon, Apple had just gone up, up and away. Wouldn’t the price continue to rise tomorrow? And didn’t I want to be in, from the start?

So just before the close of business, I bought in at $92.80. With a midpoint close of $92.59, it has cost me £10.50 to stay in the market. Money well spent? We’ll see.

Meanwhile, my afternoon labours had netted me a grand profit of £18.89!!!

So the account now stands at £15,814,89

Apple, meanwhile, has unveiled its tasty new iPhone, and seen its share price rise 707 points in a single session.

And I can’t help but think….

…if I hadn’t placed those initial stop losses - and always supposing I hadn’t panicked when the market spiked down, and baled out - then my first two trades (at $86.76 and $86.39) would have concluded with a profit of £902…

Still, at least I have Obeyed the First Rule of Trading: Preserve your capital.

Will it be a prosperous New Year?

Tuesday, January 9th, 2007

Like everyone else, I’ve been struggling to get back to work - the Christmas holidays seem to go on forever, and I have lost the will to do anything more than watch Celebrity Big Brother. Surely they’ll bring some fresh blood in now Donnie and Ken have walked?

(Donnie, incidentally, was renowned in Primrose Hill about three years ago: He used to parade up and down in Regents Park Road, wearing a pink shell suit - honest - hoping Noel and Liam Gallagher would notice him. And I wasted 50p voting for Ken, because I used to sit next to one of his sons, back when I had a season ticket for White Hart Lane.)

Maybe we can learn a lesson from America, where the markets were open on Boxing Day.

(Which reminds me of my friend T who comes from South Carolina; we used to work together in London, as her husband was over here doing investment banking. December 26th was always his favourite day of the year… promptly at 8am, he would launch a hostile takeover of some unsuspecting bunch of turkey-munchers. Worked every time. Needless to say T. is now divorced. While the ex owns an obscene amount of Park Avenue real estate. If there’s a moral in this story, it’s probably not a good one.)

See what I mean? I’m sitting here rambling. Which, if you’ve stopped by to check out my blog because YOU’RE procrastinating, too, is ok. But if you wanted to know about my latest trades…

…Well, here we go.

My final trades of 2006 involved Amazon and the Dow. How did I fare?

AMAZON: Having banked £47.25, I kept a trade on Amazon Rolling in place for six sessions between 18 - 26 December. The price was bobbing up and down and I had three wins and three losses before my stop loss kicked in at $39.50, for a net profit of £13. Very pleased about the stop-loss, as Amazon has subsequently tumbled to $37.50.

Can it be coincidental that they have jacked up the price of Bets and the City to £8.49? Still great value, I hasten to add :) ) But if you’re after a January Bargain, buy it via the link on my website for only £6.59.

And what about the Santa Claus rally? Not as good as in previous years. I ducked out on December 27th with a winning £2 a point Dow trade that netted me £192…. and compensated for the rubbish £2 a point Dow trade that had had lost me £190 two days earlier.

I’ve reorganised my Finspreads accounts. I now have one that is currently £15,796 in credit. And a No 2 account with £2,287.28 in it.

The American markets have just opened, and I am contemplating my first trade of 2007: Apple. They’re meant to be announcing their latest Killer Product today - an i-Phone - and the price has risen 78 points within four minutes of the market opening, so I’m off to monitor, before deciding whether or not to buy.