A profit of £291 for January. Well, sort of…
Wednesday, January 31st, 2007Someone - and probably most recently Lord Levy - said that a week in politics is a long time. In which case, twenty-one days in trading must surely qualify as Ancient History.
Oh, how the markets have been moving. And not entirely in my favour.
But we’ll start with the good news. My Finspreads account balance is currently £16,087, with various successful trades to report.
If I were a Camden Council spin doctor I’d hold it right there.
Alas, it’s not the full story.
You’ll remember I was focused - obsessed, almost - on Apple. A fabulous buying opportunity if ever I saw one. I made £193.50 with 50p a point trades on the afternoon of 11 January. By which time the share price had hit $96.58.
“It’s going to soar above $100. Just watch it go!” I predicted the following morning, over coffee with my friend Supermum (former ace trader, now overrun by small children and large dogs, but still smiling).
“And then it’ll meet resistance.” If Supermum looked smug it’s probably because she OWNS an orchard’s worth of Apple shares, and has grown her harvest from around the $40 mark.
Still, Supermum didn’t seem to be contradicting me. Or even encouraging a note of caution.
On the Wednesday, Apple did something interesting. It opened and closed at almost the same price, forming the shape of a cross (don’t tell British Airways) on my ShareScope end-of-day chart. Down from its peak, at around $94.50. But I was out of the market, and looking for a way back in.
Had the price finally run out of steam? Or was it taking a break before reaching even higher highs?
It’s been a busy time of year (Nicoll vs. The Inland Revenue; spread betting gains are tax free… if only we could offset our losses), so I decided to take the long-term view on Apple.
With 550 potential points on the table (from $94.50 to my magic $100 per share), I decided to buy the March contract, next day when there was an upward break. I went 50p a point, with the intention of going higher once I was in profit.
Two weeks ago, Apple duly reached an all-time high of $97.10. And then….
SPLAT.
The following day, it closed at $89.08. That’s 802 points. At 50p a point.
And you know what?
I stayed in the trade.
And you know what else?
I’m STILL in the trade. (And currently showing a loss of £634.15.)
Initially, I was confident. “It’s just a blip. I have until 20th March. Course it will recover,” I told Supermum.
She didn’t disagree.
The price dipped below $78 last week. And I came very close to folding Today, Apple has recovered all the way up to $86, which is a few steps in the right direction.
All the same, I wish I’d got out of the trade at the first hint of trouble. I’m hanging in, and trying not to be emotional about it. But I’m cross with myself for breaking the no-more-than-one-per-cent-of-the-bank-at-risk rule.
On the other hand…
…I have a bit of a cunning plan.
It’s this:
If Apple shows any volatility on an intraday basis - up or down - I can Buy or Sell on the Rolling contract. I’ve done this twice, so far. First time I won £30. Next time I lost £34!
Other trades - I did a spot of day trading when I should have been filing taxi receipts. (I think the American markets are better for this than the UK, as they’re more volatile.) Up £76 by shorting Symantic on the back of some bad news. Tried the same with Intel: lost £58. A modest profit of £20.95 on Millicom. And £34.50 shorting Sandisk.
I am testing a sort-of system, with modest success. Something Greg Secker mentioned in passing. Too soon to be sure if its any good. But I’ll let you know once I get back to some more day trading.
In the meanwhile, I am ending the month in profit. I’ve made plenty of short-term, modestly successful trades. But Apple’s gone sour, and realistically, the profits I’ve made are likely to be wiped out.
Meanwhile, I still have several hours to get my tax form to the Revenue!