Well guess what?

Dow Jones and I are back in London…. and taking every ounce of credit for bringing the Spanish sunshine back with us to Primrose Hill. (Retired Reggie pointed out today that the sun has shone every day since Boris was elected Mayor… which reminded me that Boris’s ex-wife, Allegra, was once my next-door neighbour, and that Boris’s dad is also the owner of a Jack Russell who’s one of Dow-Wow’s pals.)

Anyway.

Being sensible, I decided to cash in my various trades before coming back.

Big mistake.

Apple has continued to soar… I have missed a THOUSAND points of profit that would have been mine had I only kept my rolling trade in position.

Ah well…

The other big change has been brought to my attention by several readers. Namely that while I was driving from Marbella to Santander - we came home the pretty way - the Lovely People at Finspreads have updated their website. As soon as I’m properly unpacked, I’ll give you my verdict…. but in the meanwhile, the tekkie people have, um, overlooked the links that go from my web site to theirs… and even worse, there is no facility for anyone to claim the £50 account top-up that I’ve negotiated for my readers.

(In case you didn’t know, if you open a new Finspreads Account with at least £100, then you get £50 added to it. Full details are at http://www.sallynicoll.com/finspreadsoffer.html )

Assuming that I haven’t managed to put you off spread betting and you’d like to claim the free money, then send an email to sally@sallynicoll.com and I’ll sort it out for you.

As soon as I’ve finished unpacking…

Adios for now!

If you’ve read BETS AND THE CITY, you’ll know I’m a bit of a pinball wizard. Alas, it’s not a talent that’s ever going to make me a living. So I have to be a writer, instead. And as we all know, writers gravitate to all manner of activities that will enable them to procrastinate. (I have the cleanest floors on the Costa del Sol.)

So last month, my friend Angie sends me an email headed Air Force Test. It said:

“This will drive you nuts! The object of the game is to move the red block around without getting hit by the blue blocks or touching the black walls. If you can go longer than 18 seconds you are phenomenal. It’s been said that the US Air Force uses this for fighter pilots. They are expected to go for at least 2 minutes.”

Immediately, I clicked on the link. If you want to have a go, copy and paste this link:

http://members.iinet.net.au/~pontipak/redsquare.html

First time I played, I was killed in action quicker than you can say Basra. Fifth time round, I latsed the requisite 18 seconds. By the time it was getting dark, the new book remained unwritten, and I was officially up there with Tom Cruise and his merry band of Top Gunners. Dow Jones, incidentally, has taken to sitting on my lap when I’m on the computer, and he was mesmerised by the flashing blocks of blue and red.

If you decide to play, the ’secret’ is to use a technique that Sex God Ruud Guillet deployed back when he was manager of Chelsea. “Stop running around all over the place,” he told the team. “Stand still, and let the ball come to you.” In other words, move the red block as little as possible, and let the blue shapes run around like headless chickens.

Anyway. While I was waiting for the US Air Force to approve my application (they have not yet replied), I thought it was about time to dive back into the markets. You’ll notice I’ve been pretty quiet on the blog lately, and that’s because I actually HAVE been writing…. and when I’m focused on that, spread betting takes a back seat.

Since my last blog, I’ve had some success with long-term plays on Apple (although I confess I’m merely recouping losses I incurred when the share price plunged to $120). I’m still kicking myself for closing my SELL on Bear Sterns a cluple of days BEFORE they followed Northern Rock into oblivion. And I’ve been buying and selling silver and oil (both trading within a range, so I try to buy on the way up, and sell on the way down) while selling EUR/GBP in order to offset the diminishing amount of Euros the nice people at Sol Bank give me whenever I go change my ill-gotten gains into local currency.

But ever since discovering I should be a fighter pilot, I’ve been trading Easyjet. I’ve been doing well when I buy towards the end of a day when the price has gone down. Althoough having said that, the longer term trend now seems to be down, so I’m thinking of reversing the strategy.

My other current trade is a sell on CSR (a company that featured in BETS) which is doing nicely.

And in the meanwhile, the new book really is coming along. Honest.

So Northern Rock has finally been put out of my misery, and we can no longer short its shares.

But that’s not my point.

I want to know whether nationalisation means my taxes are now paying Kevin Keegan’s forthcoming implosion at Newcastle United? (A drama out of that particular crisis is surely only a few more matches away.)

And hands up if you think Alistair Darling should be compelled to wear a black and white replica shirt - to match those dodgy eyebrows - until the whole mess is properly resolved. Resignation is too good for him!

Blimey. Bets is back in the Amazon Top 500 of ALL books today. People who know more than I do about publishing tell me this is pretty good going for anything that’s been out for more than a few weeks.

So welcome to all new readers of the blog, who’ve found their way here as a result of reading the book - and thank you very much for all the nice emails you’ve been sending. (Especially the bunch from the first week of January that, er, arrived today. Email moves in mysterious ways between the UK and Spain.)

I don’t have much to tell you about my own trading at the moment - except that I scalped about a hundred quid out of the FTSE 100 at the end of the week, on the correct basis that it wasn’t going to survive much over 5900. Basically, I’m writing more and therefore trading less right now.

However, to celebrate the renewed success of Bets and the City, here’s a joke from my friend Beverly. She lives in America, and still hasn’t got the hang of that spread betting thing we do. But she sent me this to see if it would make me laugh. It did. See if it does the same for you:

++++++++++++++++++++++++++

RETIREMENT PLANNING

If you had purchased $1000.00 of Nortel stock at the wrong time, it would have been worth $49 after one year.

With Enron, you would have had $16.50 left of the original $1000.00.

With WorldCom, you would have had less than $5 left.

If you had purchased $1000 of Delta Air Lines stock you would have $49 remaining.

But, if you had purchased $1,000 worth of beer/wine one year ago, drank all the beer/wine, then turned in the cans/bottles for the aluminum recycling REFUND, you would have had $214

Based on the above, the best current investment advice is to drink heavily and recycle.

I have written to the Good People at Finspreads to ensure that if my BUY on Apple - which is still Very Very Bad - fails to come good by March, then they will be happy to refund my losses.

I mean…. it was the Dog that made me do it. (Dow Jones says, ‘Hola’ by the way.)

I obviously have no control in these matters.

I am an enthusiastic supporter of the compensation culture.

Nothing is ever my fault.

And of course, if, by any chance, I happen to win, I’ll keep VERY quiet.

I shall also be suing Spurs if we fail to win the UEFA Cup, as I shall deserve compensation for emotional distress.

And I am investigating a claim against the Spanish Government, since the sun has failed to shine for three consecutive days.

As for the fat-boy greyhound trainer who’s taking William Hill to court, because it’s All Their Fault he blew £2,000,000… I really, really hope he gets sent packing with a flea in his ear.

Don’t you?

If you’ve read Bets and the City, you know that’s rule number one. It was handed down to me - like a tablet of stone - by my dad, when he used to liberate me from school on a Monday afternoon, and take me to the races at Fontwell Park… just to ensure I had a rounded education, you understand.

Which is why I can’t help but shudder, when I read the latest remark from Le Rogue Trader, Jerome Kerviel. Explaining his £3.7bn losses, he said: “You get a bit carried away.”

Makes me feel un peau better about my current Pomme Mac trade, that I really should have closed at $140. Surely the share price will recover by March. Won’t it?

Vive le sang froid.

But seriously, if you’re trading US stocks, remember they are usually FAR more volatile than their FTSE counterparts, so be especially careful to limit your losses. The flipside of which is that you can also make good wins. I traded Apple’s rolling contract from $120.17 to $125.48 on Thursday and Friday for a profit of £265. Which makes a bit of a dent in my long-term loser position…

…But I know full well that I got a bit carried away after Apple hit $200. Je suis stupide.

Can’t help but remember that I predicted towards the end of last year that the markets were due for a BIG correction. It happened yesterday, when the FTSE suffered its worst fall since 9/11.

And where was I on Black Monday? Um, sitting on my balcony, gazing at a sparkling blue sea and wondering whether to go for a swim. Write my new book, I mean.

Since the start of the year, I’ve done quite well on last year’s favourite stock, Apple…. although I dare say that will change as soon as the US markets open this afternoon, and my long-term short on Citigroup is also making money. (I’ve been stalking Bear Sterns, too, but I think it will probably gap down so far this afternoon that I’ll continue to wait.)

I have also achieved the almost-impossible: Losing money on a SELL trade in a falling market. Which is to say I have been short on TR Property since 9th January (take a look at the chart and you’ll see why), even though it is defying all odds and continues to rise - up 2.9 right now, the little bastard - while everything around it heads south.

If you’re new to all this market turmoil, then take it VERY easy. Don’t make the mistake I’ve made in the past, and think, “Oh, it’ll all go back up in a couple of days.” Let me make it clear, NO-ONE KNOWS FOR SURE WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT (although according to the futures market, the Dow will open WELL DOWN). Last time I adopted the Ostrich Position - head in the sand, waiting for my paper losses to diminish, all that happened was that I continued to lose money until I could bear the pain no longer, and fold the trade. I’d have been better off - in all senses - to switch my BUYS to SELLS.

Please, please remember that when the markets are this volatile, positions change very quickly and you need to monitor your positions frequently.

Happy 2008 and welcome to all my new readers. Bets and the City evidently found its way into plenty of Christmas stockings and spent the festive season drifting in and out of the Amazon Top 500 (not that I was looking).

Try as I might, I have failed to put you off spread betting and tons of people have taken advantage of the £50 Finspreads top up offer for newbies. So what advice to I have for beginners? Take a look at this email from Aubrey, as it’s fairly typical:

__________________________________
Hi Sally

I opened my account with Finspreads a week ago and have already managed to severely dent my original £100 (I was up to £117 last night, but today I’m down to a measly £30) so I’m looking forward to that £50 top up!

I was trying my hand at some quick in and out trades at 10p to start with, but I rapidly moved onto 50p then £1 per trade.  I had an overnight 25p buy on the GBP/USD last night, which was up by £23 at one point this morning. But then the price fell rapidly.  Add some more bad in/out trades this morning where I went completely the wrong way at the wrong time and I was down a few more £20’s!

I’m sure you’re asked this all the time, but do you have any guiding words for beginner – I really want to get into trading, probably taking trades lasting 1 – 5 days in general.  I think attempting to ‘day trade’ was my mistake, but I learnt a lot in my first week!

__________________________________
So what’s Aubrey been doing wrong? It amounts to a Typical Beginner Mistake that almost all of us are guilty of. In fact, two mistakes.

First off, there’s a reason why Finspreads let you trade for only 10p a point for the first eight weeks: it’s so you can get the hang of the operating platform, along with a feel for how the markets move and their volatility, without putting too much at risk.

So what do we all do?

MISTAKE NUMBER ONE: It all ‘goes wrong’ as soon as you start to WIN. You immediately get overconfident. “Ha!” you say smugly. “This is easy. I’m a natural. Soon I’ll be rich.” So then you increase your stake…. and then you increase it some more….

…and then the markets swing and you start to lose. Your easy-gotten-gains melt away, and unless you act fast, you end up losing everything you won, and then some.

The lesson? Money management is crucial.

If you have £100 in your account, the MAXIMUM you can afford to lose is a tenner. (I try not to lose more than 1 per cent of my trading bank…. this works best when there’s at least £5k in it, but you see where I’m coming from.) You MUST limit your risk.

MISTAKE NUMBER TWO: Most beginners make too many trades. Just do one at a time. OK, two at a time, because this is new and exciting. But not more. (Definitely not more than 3 ) We all overtrade at first. Just try not to be silly about it. And if you must overtrade, do so at 10p a point.

So the Golden Rules for new Finspreads customers: Stick to 10p a point for as long as you possibly can. And if you’ve started with £100 in your account, remember… a £5 loss means you’ve lost five per cent of your starting bank. Try to make that the absolute maximum you lose in a single trade… and if, like Aubrey, you find yourself £23 up, then maybe it’s the moment to take profits.

What’s all this I hear about Harriett Harman and Harry Redknapp conceiving a secret love child while together on a canoeing expedition - and winding up in jail for calling the kid Mohamed?

England seems a million miles away.

Especially as old friends like Retired Reggie are refusing to speak to me any more. Just because I keep banging on about my view of the sea and the mountains, here in Spain. Or the fact that the daily temperature here is 23C, and people are swimming in the sea. (I think they are Germans.)

Puerto Banus is a place like no other. For a start, I think it is the leopardskin capital of the world. From coats that look suspiciously like the real thing, to underpants that are definitely not. I know they cannot be real, because they also drip with Swarovski, and no self-respecting Jungle Queen would ever wear fake diamonds.

As for the dogs. Dog Jones is VERY afraid. Everywhere we go, we see canines carried in Versace bags (leopardskin, naturally). Some of the unfortunates are also wheeled along the prom in prams. In fact, the Dow Wow is just about the only dog that gets to frolic on the beach. He chases after his ball doing John Wayne imitations, disappearing into the huge clouds of dust he takes such pleasure in creating.

Anyway. I spent the first three weeks sorting out telephones, internet connections and televisions. The sort of stuff that was meant to be here before me, but that my rubbish landlord failed to provide.

So I’ve been as out of touch with the markets as I have been with the news.

Maybe this is a good thing. Because when I DID get back to trading, on Thursday, I jumped onto the FTSE 100 and the DOW, in anticipation of the seasonal, so-called Santa Claus rally.

Earlier in the week, I’d been lecturing my fellow Finspreads Trader In Exile - Jackie J - about the virtues of sticking with a winning trade, rather than snatching an immediate profit.

So you can guess what happened next….

…I checked the Dow just after Tottenham had scraped their miserable draw against Anderlecht (you can take the girl from Bleeding Heart Lane but–) and discovered it had rocketed over 170 points.

This was nothing to do with Father Christmas, and everything to do with George Bush promising to make sure the sub-prime crisis doesn’t result in coast-to-coast foreclosures. Maybe Dubya would like to buy the Northern Rock. As for me, I hastily took my profits - they’ll come in useful now my fixed-rate mortgage has come to an end, and Northern Rock (yep, I’m part of the UK sub-prime market) has shafted me for an extra £150 a month.

I was also working on the assumption that the market would drop back on Friday, and I could get right back in. But that didn’t happen - the Dow managed to keep north of 13,600 for the session. Let’s see what happens tomorrow.

In the meantime, thanks to everyone who has sent me messages of support for my move to Spain. As you know, I’m here to finish writing my next book. And unless i get my ass back into gear VERY soon, I shall have to take up canoing…

On November 1st (scroll down to check the post) I predicted a Market Crash.

THe Dow opened at 13,924 that day.

Nine days later - at around 5.30pm - the Index has plunged to 13,130.

“Fantastic, Sally!” I savour the admiration in your voice. “Almost eight hundred points. How much have you made?”

Er, nothing.

Tragic.

I’ve made a rule that when I’m too busy to focus on trading (and moving to Spain means I am toooooooo busy) then I simply don’t trade. I’ve lost too much money in the past, trying to monitor positions while drains were collapsing, friends were visiting, and my love life was going to hell in a handcart.

Never mind.

Thank you to the seventeen readers who have voted in favour of me cutting up my Goldfish card in protest (see previous posts!). “I had no idea so many people would actually bother to email me,” I was boasting to my Best Friend Marianne over a farewell coffee this morning.

“Ha!” she snorted. “They’ll all be from Goldfish customer services, trying to get rid of you. You’re too much trouble, and you write nasty things about their competency.”

Some people are SO cynical…

Anyway, all my bags are packed and I’m ready to go. Leave from Plymouth on Sunday and by Wednesday, I should have arrived at my new apartment in Spain.

Bookmark the blog and come back for a visit if you want to know how I get on (or if you want any more of my predictions. For example: If I were trading on Monday, I’d probably go £1 a point BUYING the Dow. With a stop loss on 12,999. Unless, of course, it falls below that tonight… in which case, I’d have a careful look at my trusty ShareScope chats, before deciding what to do.)

If you never hear from me again, you’ll know that driving on the right hand side of the road didn’t work out terribly well…